Serbia’s Political Odyssey: What to Expect from the 25 October General Elections?
This year marks the 26th anniversary of the fall of Slobodan Milošević’s regime in the Bulldozer Revolution that took place on 5 October 2000. Twenty-six years later, however, Serbia faces many of the same challenges. Under the rule of the autocratic Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) and its dominant political figure, the former president Aleksandar Vučić, blatant corruption and institutional deterioration have remained constant. This year also marks a turning point: after nearly two years of student-led protests, the struggle for accountability has now moved into the electoral arena, with snap parliamentary elections being called for 25 October 2026.
The protests were sparked by the fall of the canopy at the newly renovated railway station in Novi Sad in November 2024, a tragedy that claimed the lives of 16 people. Demanding transparency and accountability from the government and state institutions, students organised faculty blockades and staged silent tributes and long-distance marches.
Youth Leadership: From Protests to Electoral Campaign
The current movement is not Serbia’s first experience of student mobilizations. Historically, student protests have played a major role in social movements in the country. In 1968 in former Yugoslavia, during the rule of Josip Broz Tito, students occupied universities and organized blockades, demanding democratization and decisive actions to address social and economic problems, including unemployment. In the 1990s, student protests became an important part of the popular mobilizations opposing Slobodan Milošević’s regime. In recent times, the SNS’s years in power have been marked by civic protests over key social and economic issues.
The ongoing student movement has demonstrated considerable organizational strength, going toe to toe with the SNS regime. During faculty and university blockades, students established plenums: assemblies open to all the students within a faculty, where participants could express their views and take collective action. These assemblies put direct democracy into practice. Perhaps most importantly, students remained committed to the principles established at the outset. They laid out their demands and pledged to continue their mobilization until their demands were met. They blocked important transport infrastructures on numerous occasions, held a 24-hour-long protest on a major traffic point in Belgrade, and simultaneously blocked the entrance to two major public broadcasters in Serbia (RTS in Belgrade, and RTV in Novi Sad). They also provided ordinary citizens with the “know how” for organizing themselves into citizens assemblies (“zborovi” in Serbian).
The Electoral Contest: Campaign Strategies and Warning Signs
With their demands still unmet, the movement evolved from organizing protests to preparing an electoral campaign. Recently, the students presented a list of 250 candidates who will stand in the upcoming snap general elections. With a few exceptions, the list consists of individuals who are largely unknown to the public, but who have expertise in their respective fields. The list is meritocratic, placing emphasis on professional expertise and non-political profiles.
Apart from a list of candidates, the students also presented an electoral plan. Its priorities include depoliticizing the courts and strengthening the independence of the public prosecution services, establishing a specialized prosecution police, introducing lustration measures, confiscating illegally acquired assets, ensuring transparent public procurement and protecting media freedom. They have been very active during the campaign, making calls, knocking on doors, and visiting villages, towns and cities across the country. Their key priority has been engaging the public on the proposed electoral plan by organizing open forums.
Compared with previous elections, the SNS campaign this time around appears more reactive, attempting to be a match for the students’ mobilizations. The SNS, known for its ironclad control of the media in Serbia, has had its propaganda machine working around the clock trying to discredit the list of candidates proposed by the student protest. Two facts will best explain the extent of control the ruling party has over the national media scene. First, president Vučić addressed the public on TV as many as 411 times in 2025. Second, during the electoral campaign in 2022, Vučić quite literally emerged from a fridge holding a jar of pickles on national TV. This combination of constant presence and deliberately staged absurdism has dominated the media scene since the rise of SNS.
The students, knowing that the regime’s TV channels and newspapers were the only source of information in rural areas of the country, started a programme called “A Student in Every Village”. In this, student volunteers visit villages and towns around the country and speak directly with residents to offer an alternative perspective. This work group has reportedly reached more than 400 local communities to date.
Beyond the Campaign: Election Integrity and the Struggle for Change
Electoral politics in the Western Balkans are further complicated beyond a simple combination of voters including national residents and diaspora populations. Following the disintegration of Yugoslavia, many hold citizenship in more than one successor state. In Bosnia and Herzegovina’s elections on 4 October 2026, eligible dual citizens living in neighbouring countries, including Serbia, could influence the electoral outcome. Similar cross-border electoral dynamics could play out in the elections in Serbia this year. The SNS is no stranger to these dynamics, seeking to actively mobilise support among Bosnian Serbs. Using the death of Ratko Mladić, a convicted war criminal, by organizing a flashy funeral for him, can be seen as an attempt to secure votes among Bosnian Serbs in Republika Srpska.
An incident in Užice, a town in western Serbia, offers another indication of the extremely tense political atmosphere surrounding these elections. At a Vučić electoral rally, men identified as SNS supporters and wearing vests bearing the image of Mladic assaulted a local resident for refusing to leave a café. This is not the first instance of violence exerted by SNS sympathisers. During the local elections held in Serbia during 2025 and 2026, attacks on journalists, intimidation of citizens at polling stations, or straight out brawls were common.
The SNS was able to retain control in these recent local elections, winning by a slim margin in every municipality. A general election presents, however, a different organizational challenge: the party’s financial capabilities and manpower will need to be deployed all around the country.
Recent local elections offer warning signs but cannot offer a clear prediction of the national outcome. The Kofi Annan Foundation´s Electoral Vulnerability Index estimates the likelihood of election-related violence in the upcoming elections in Serbia at 90.7%, a strikingly high risk. Against this backdrop and given the current heightened political atmosphere, the possibility of further violence requires serious consideration. Preventing further escalation and ensuring that election day is free from violence and intimidation must be a priority.
The diaspora could also play an important role. Approximately 111.000 voters have applied to vote abroad, while 28.000 have yet to be assigned a polling station, even though some of the communities abroad provided potential locations for the polling stations. These arrangements raise concerns about barriers to participation and the limitation of the free expression of voting intentions. The collusion of state institutions, such as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in creating and maintaining barriers to electoral participation is also troubling. Some of the voters abroad will have to travel over 1,000 kilometres to reach their designated polling station, placing a considerable burden on their ability to exercise their right to vote.
As election day approaches, the central question is whether the student movement can translate this sustained wave of civic mobilisation into electoral change. Will we finally see the end of Serbia’s long political odyssey and experience the emergence of a state governed by accountable institutions and the rule of law, or quite the opposite? Will the 14-year-long rule of the SNS come to an end, or will the electoral results extend it further? Are we looking at a repeat of the Bulldozer Revolution, or are we on the brink of a radical change for the better in Serbia?
Todor Pavlović is an MA student in Peace, Security and Development at the University of Belgrade’s Faculty of Political Sciences. He graduated from Saint Louis University, Madrid in 2023 with a BA in International Relations and has relevant experience in the field. Currently, his main interests are climate change and sustainable development.
The OCC publishes a wide range of opinions that are meant to help our readers think of International Relations. This publication reflects the views only of the author, and neither the OCC nor Saint Louis University can be held responsible for any use which may be made of the opinion of the author and/or the information contained therein. The opinions in this article are explicitly that of the author, and in no way represent nor reflect the opinions of the student movement in Serbia.
To quote this article, please use the following reference:
Pavlović, Todor. “Serbia’s Political Odyssey: What to Expect from the 25 October General Elections?", October 2026, https://www.crisesobservatory.org/post/serbia-s-political-odyssey-what-to-expect-from-the-25-october-general-elections
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